Jamaica newly appointed Ambassador to Brazil Alison Stone Roofe

She is career diplomat Alison Stone Roofe, the current director of the Caribbean and Americans Department in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The ambassador designate is also the former deputy director of the Foreign Trade Department and Private Sector Liaison for the Caribbean Regional Negotiating Machinery.

Ms Roofe is a part-time lecturer of International Relations at the University of the West Indies, and brings with her 20 years working experience in the ministry. She serves as a member of the CARICOM Inter-Governmental Task Force on the review of the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas and a member of the Caricom-appointed Evaluation Committee overseeing the reconstruction of the Caricom Secretariat.

Word of the appointment was made yesterday by Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, AJ Nicholson, and signals a deepening of relations within the hemisphere.

“The opening up of a mission in the capital Brasilia is part of the strategic vision of the ministry in a bid to encourage trade and investment opportunities and strengthen Jamaica’s advocacy in the global arena,” the ministry said yesterday.

Jamaican Ambassador Audrey Marks

“I have offered my resignation as is the normal protocol in these circumstances,” Marks told the Observer via cellphone from Washington yesterday evening.

Marks, Jamaica’s first female ambassador to the US capital, offered no further details. However, an Observer source said she tendered the resignation letter early January but has not yet received a response from the People’s National Party Government, which took office following the December 29, 2011 general election.

According to the source, Marks gave the administration three months’ notice, therefore her resignation will take effect in March.

Last night, Government ministers dodged Observer queries on the issue.

When contacted, Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade Minister Senator A J Nicholson directed the Observer to speak with the permanent secretary in his ministry.

“You are asking the wrong person. You need to speak with the permanent secretary,” Nicholson said.

However, the acting permanent secretary, Vilma McLish, did not respond to an e-mail sent to her up to press time.

A check with the minister with responsibility for information Senator Sandrea Falconer also did not shed any further light as she said she was not aware of the matter and referred the Observer to the foreign affairs minister.

Marks is the founder and chief executive officer of the bill payment agency, Paymaster, for which she received an Observer Business Leader nomination for the year 1999.

She was sent to Washington in May 2010 by the Jamaica Labour Party Government to replace Anthony Johnson, who was dispatched to the United Kingdom as Jamaica’s High Commissioner to that country.

Johnson had replaced the former PNP Cabinet minister Burchell Whiteman as Jamaica’s top diplomat to the United Kingdom.

Prior to assuming office as ambassador, Marks served as deputy chairman of the Urban Development Corporation. She also sat on the boards of RBTT Securities Jamaica Limited, Jamaica Trade and Investment Company Limited, National Health Fund, Mona School of Business, as well as a number of private and public sector bodies.

A graduate of Immaculate Conception and Marymount High schools, Marks holds Bachelors and Masters degrees in business administration from the University of West Indies and Nova University (Florida), USA, respectively.

Jamaican legislators sworn in

During the ceremony, Member of Parliament for South Manchester, Michael Peart, was chosen as Speaker of the House of Representatives, while MP for Central St. James, Lloyd B. Smith, will serve as Deputy Speaker of the Lower House.

Member of Parliament for East Kingston and Port Royal, Phillip Paulwell, is the new Leader of Government Business in the Lower House, with Member of Parliament for North East St. Andrew, Delroy Chuck, serving as Leader of Opposition Business.

Meanwhile, 20 members of the 21-member Senate were sworn in. Reverend Stanley Redwood was elected President of the Senate, while Senator Angela Brown Burke will serve as his deputy.

Opposition Leader Andrew Holness is yet to appoint an eighth senator, having named seven on January 16.

Senator A.J. Nicholson is the new Leader of Government Business in the Upper House, while Senator Arthur Williams will serve as Leader of Opposition Business.

In her remarks, Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller said her administration is committed to accountability and responsibility.

“We commit to serve with humility and dedication to the principles of fairness, justice and equity. We will apply ourselves with diligence in tackling the challenges confronting us for the good of all people. We will uphold the laws of the land and conduct ourselves and the people’s business with integrity, sensitivity and sincerity,” Simpson Miller said.

For his part, Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Holness, vowed to “rabidly seek out the welfare and benefit of the people of Jamaica.”

The Simpson Miller-led People’s National Party won 42 of the 63 parliamentary seats in the December 29 polls, with the remaining 21 going to the Jamaica Labour Party.

Portia Simpson Miller PNP Return to Power in Jamaica

The results declared, PNP winning 41 of the 63 seats in the House of Representatives while the JLP won the the remaining 22.

Andrew Holness leader of the ruling Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) has conceded defeat.

Portia Lucretia Simpson Miller, the president of PNP is tentatively scheduled to be sworn in at King’s House in a ceremony set for Thursday, January 5, at 4pm.

Although a date is set the swearing-in ceremony will take place when Governor General Sir Patrick Allen gets certification of the polls from the Electoral Office of Jamaica.

The recount was taking longer than usual due to the close margin of victory in a number of constituencies implies director of Elections Orrette Fisher.

The Portia new administration will contend with debt running at approximately 130% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment rate at more than 12%.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), although the official figures are not yet available for 2011, the economic and financial conditions continue to deteriorate with rising debt and week fiscal performance in the majority of countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) including Jamaica.

The debt burden of many CARICOM countries – and the region as a whole – is quite alarming.  Apart from Suriname, no CARICOM country has a debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio below 50%. The ratio is over 100% in St Kitts-Nevis, Jamaica, Barbados and Grenada. It is pretty close to that figure in Antigua and Barbuda and Belize.

The country can celebrate the PNP victory tonight, however everyone will be watching for signs of economic momentum, because the economic road ahead looks grim.

Observers have predicted a strong challenge from the main opposition People’s National Party (PNP) led by Portia Simpson Miller, this state’s first female prime minister.

In his final national broadcast ahead of the poll on Thursday, Holness urged the 1.64 million registered voters to support the JLP, stating that that party has “taken the country through some tough times.”

“We give God thanks that we have been able to prevent the type of instability that wealthier countries have experienced,” he said.

In her final hours of campaigning, Simpson Miller, the PNP president, questioned Holness’ ability to run the country, and warned Jamaicans against voting for an inexperienced leader.

“I don’t know if you would put your children in a car with someone who has just learned to drive,” said Simpson Miller, who headed government from March 2006 to September 2007.

Holness, 39, was appointed in October following the resignation of then Prime Minister Bruce Golding.

The PNP has predicted it would win at least 37 of the 60 seats, up from the 28 it won in the 2007 polls.

The latest Jamaica Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll shows that the JLP and the PNP are in a statistical dead heat.

The election would be monitored by national, regional and international observers.

A 25-member team from the Organisation of American States (OAS) was scheduled to be deployed here today.

The Caricom Secretariat has announced that its team arrived in the country December 26 and would remain here until month end.

Holness, 39, ended months of speculation last night when he announced the December poll at a massive political meeting of his Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in Central Manchester.

Nomination Day is December 12.

“I want you to have a happy Christmas, a merry Christmas. So we break for the Christmas period, but by the 28th you back on the road, and by the 29th you put your vote in the box, happy New Year, government in place, back on track, ready for work, ready for progress, ready for development, ready for a positive future,” Holness told JLP supporters.

He also made a pitch for undecided voters.

“I want to assure those at the crossroads tonight. I want to assure you that in this leader you have a fair leader, one who understands the issues,” he stated.

Holness, the former Minister of Education, was sworn in as prime minister in late October following the resignation of veteran politician Bruce Golding.

The JLP’s main challenge will come from the Portia Simpson Miller-led People’s National Party (PNP), which declared on Saturday that was ready to go to the polls.

“I have the best team. I have a blend of experience and wisdom and you are looking at not a weak, weak leader,” Simpson Miller stated.

The JLP and PNP will each field 63 candidates for the country’s 16th general election since Universal Adult Suffrage in 1944.

There are just over 1.6 million voters – 300,000 more than was registered for the 2007 poll in which the then Bruce Golding-led JLP won 32 of the seats to the PNP’s 28.

A Jamaica Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson national poll shows both parties locked in a statistical dead heat with 29 per cent of Jamaicans saying they would vote for the JLP, while 32 per cent would vote for the PNP.

Mark Espat had been serving as PUP’s interim leader since Briceño relinquished the party post almost two weeks ago.

Espat has already been endorsed by all but one constituency, however, he told party officials the demands on him are too much to lead the 61-year-old institution at this time.

According to media reports, the interim leader has not been able to secure financing for a multi-million dollar plan for party operations ahead of the next general elections.

The party owes BZD$5 million dollars, reports indicated, and requires an additional $10 million.

Espat stated in a release: “I informed members of the National Executive and the Standard Bearers of the People’s United Party of my final decision not to seek the post of Party Leader. I am profoundly grateful for the numerous expressions of support for my leadership from Standard Bearers, party branches, party members and from the general citizenry of Belize.

“…Working along with our Deputy Leaders and National Executive and in conformity with our Constitution, the Party will proceed with the election of a substantive Party Leader in the shortest possible timeframe.”

This is said to be the first time in Belize’s parliamentary history that a leader of the opposition has stepped down with no immediate successor in place.

Golding said he will step down as prime minister on Sunday, about a month earlier than expected, to make way for Andrew Holness, the 39-year-old education minister who has consistently dominated polls asking Jamaicans who should replace the departing leader.

The 63-year-old Golding, who has called for a youthful successor, said the leadership transition will be completed on Sunday when he formally resigns and Holness will be sworn in by Jamaica’s governor general in the capital of Kingston.

Golding announced in late September that he would step down once a new leader of the ruling Jamaica Labor Party is elected. The party’s leader automatically becomes the prime minister.

After Golding announced that he would step down, attention immediately focused on Holness as his possible successor. He took a big step toward becoming the island’s next leader earlier this month when he received the backing of a Labor parliamentary group, including several rivals.

On Sunday, Holness would become the youngest head of government in the island’s history. He has promised to fight corruption, improve efficiency, and vowed the debt-wracked island would fulfill its obligations and agreements with international partners.

Holness was first elected to Parliament in 1997, at the age of 25, and was once special assistant to former Prime Minister Edward Seaga, who was chief of the Labor Party until Golding took over in 2005.

The 81-year-old Seaga said his former assistant’s “firm disposition” gives him the “right characteristics” for the government’s No. 1 job. He urged Holness to give special focus to improving the economy, saying “until you fix that, you’re really not going anywhere.”

Political analysts said the selection of Holness will give the ruling party the best chance at beating the main opposition People’s National Party in 2012 general elections.

“There’s no question that with Golding gone and Holness in charge that will lead to a far more competitive race,” said Brian Meeks, a professor of government at the Mona campus of the University of the West Indies.

Many analysts believe that Holness will call general elections sooner rather than later instead of allowing harsh economic realities weigh down his early days as prime minister. The country has seen two quarters of economic growth this year, but it has been slight and average Jamaicans continue to struggle.

On Tuesday, Golding presided over his final Cabinet meeting and thanked his colleagues. During his remarks to his ministers, Golding said he “emphasized that much remains to be done to accelerate the pace of economic recovery in order to be able to tackle the country’s urgent social needs.

Last year, Jamaica’s towering debt and the damaging impact of the global recession forced Golding’s government to seek assistance from the IMF, which helped his administration carry out a domestic debt restructuring and provided $1.27 billion in standby credits.

The island’s leader since 2007 when he brought Labor back to power after 18 years in opposition, Golding and his administration have launched a crackdown on violent drug and extortion gangs that have troubled the Caribbean country for years.

Golding has suffered from anemic public backing because of his handling of the 2009 U.S. extradition request for Jamaican drug kingpin Christopher “Dudus” Coke. The prime minister’s handling of the Coke case, in particular his authorization of a U.S. firm to lobby Washington to drop the request, provoked an outcry that hobbled his political career.

Coke has since pleaded guilty to racketeering and assault charges in federal court in New York, admitting he was leader of the brutal Shower Posse gang.

The radio and TV host is doing what he can for those close to him in need of money or work, he said. For the broader problem, Smiley is using his PBS series this week to put what he calls a “human face” on the nation’s poverty statistics.

Each nightly episode of “Tavis Smiley” is featuring clips from an 11-state, 18-city tour Smiley and Princeton University professor Cornel West took in August to detail the economy’s effect on individuals and families. There are follow-up discussions with anti-poverty advocates and other guests, including Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius.

His intent, Smiley said, is to “get this issue higher up on the American agenda.”

“We have to get serious about eradicating poverty in the long run while we create jobs in the short run,” he said.

While millions of Americans are suffering financially, Smiley said he also felt compelled to address the particularly harsh blow the economy has dealt black Americans.

According to a recent Census Bureau report, the overall poverty rate climbed to 15.1 percent last year, from 14.3 percent the year before, as a record 46.2 million Americans were counted among the impoverished.

Poverty increased among all ethnic groups, except Asians, with blacks the hardest hit by a poverty rate of 27.4 percent and with 26.6 percent of Hispanics in poverty. In comparison, the poverty rate for white Americans was 9.9 percent.

What Smiley and West found on their tour was both heart-breaking and inspiring, they said. It was also an introduction to poverty’s changing face.

“The new poor in this country is the former middle class,” Smiley said.

West recalled one Illinois husband and wife who fell from earning $100,000 a year to $15,000. The couple experienced a shift in perspective that the professor hopes will resonate with viewers.

“Once they had blamed the poor for their plight. Now they can see being poor is a different kind of reality,” he said.

A national poverty summit that brings together economic, social and cultural leaders is needed, Smiley said. He also called for continued government action in the face of sharp political division.

His journey across America uncovered “rays of hope in programs that are working on the ground, right now. The federal government has to find the will to continue to fund those programs in honor of a better tomorrow,” he said.

In a nationally televised address, Prime Minister Bruce Golding said questions about the role he played in the Coke saga, which he said affected him deeply, have remained a source of concern.

“I cannot allow the challenges we face and the issues that we as a people must confront to be smothered or overpowered by this saga and the emotions that they ignite. It would not be fair to my country; it would not be fair to my party,” Golding said.

As he has maintained previously, Golding said his nine-month opposition to the U.S. extradition request for Coke in 2009 and 2010 was due to the U.S. indictment relying on illegal wiretap evidence.

“It was about a breach of our Constitution and had it been a person other than Coke it perhaps would never have become the cause celebre that it turned out to be,” said Golding, whose Parliament district included Coke’s West Kingston slum stronghold.

After Golding reversed himself amid growing public discontent over his opposition, Coke’s supporters began barricading streets and preparing for battle in West Kingston’s Tivoli Gardens. A hunt for Coke in May 2010 led to four days of fighting that killed at least 73 civilians and three security officers.

Coke was captured about a month later and extradited. He has since pleaded guilty to racketeering and assault charges, admitting his was leader of the brutal Shower Posse gang.

The prime minister’s handling of the Coke case, in particular his authorization of a U.S. firm to lobby Washington to drop the request, provoked an outcry that threatened his political career. With opposition parties and public sector groups calling for his resignation, the governing party vouched for him following a high-level conference last year.

Golding’s words on Sunday night were the first public comments he had made since he and his Labor Party abruptly announced a week ago that he would be stepping down after four years in office. They said he would formally resign once a new party leader is chosen by roughly 5,000 delegates at an upcoming party conference. The party’s leader automatically becomes the prime minister.

While stepping down from the island’s No. 1 political job, it’s still not clear if Golding will be closing out some four decades in politics. He made no mention of whether he planned to step down from his parliamentary seat representing West Kingston.

The Labor Party said Golding had previously planned to give up leadership in 2014, if he led his party to victory for a second consecutive term. Golding led the Labor Party back to power in 2007 after 18 years in opposition.

On Sunday night, the 63-year-old also said a younger leader is needed to breathe new life into his party ahead of 2012 general elections.

Noting that he was first elected to Parliament nearly 40 years ago and will soon turn 64, Golding said it was time for members of his generation to make way for younger leaders “more in sync with 21st Century realities.”

Attention has focused on Education Minister Andrew Holness and Commerce Minister Christopher Tufton, relatively young Cabinet members in Golding’s administration. A poll earlier this year suggested that Holness was the most popular choice to lead Labor if Golding were to resign.

If the Labor Party chooses a young politician as its chief it will contrast sharply with the opposition People’s National Party, whose leader has been a fixture in Jamaican politics for decades.

Opposition boss Portia Simpson Miller led the nation as prime minister for about a year-and-a-half before the 2007 loss to Labor. She was first elected to Parliament in 1976 and became a Cabinet member in 1989.

Golding said the next few weeks will be crucial for the Labor Party but also for the country.

The election of a new leader is a process that must be done in a “mature, transparent and dignified manner,” he said.

Labor was in the opposition for nearly two decades before Golding brought his party back to power in 2007.

Perceptions of corruption, patronage and cronyism dog the governing party, but they also haunt the People’s National Party.

Golding argues that his government is finally putting the country on a solid economic pathway. This year it has divested money-losing entities such as Air Jamaica and its three remaining sugar factories. A crackdown on gangs has decreased the crime rate.

The country was hard hit by the global recession, but lately the economy appears to be on a meager upswing. The country recorded first-quarter growth of 1.4 percent and the inflation rate for the first five months of the year was 1.7 percent.

Last year, Jamaica’s towering debt and the damaging impact of the global recession forced Golding’s government to seek assistance from the IMF, which helped his administration carry out a debt restructuring and provided $1.27 billion in standby credits.

Information Minister Daryl Vaz said the prime minister will outline issues relating to transition and other critical matters facing the country.

“It was always expected that he would be addressing the nation, but I don’t think it could have been done before he laid his mother to rest,” Vaz said.

Enid Golding, who died at the age of 91, was buried September 28.

Golding’s surprise announcement, last Sunday, to the JLP’s Central Executive, prompted opposition calls for immediate general elections, and caused uncertainty within the country.

And with no clear successor, several high-ranking party officials have said they are being “encouraged” to contest the leadership race, among them, Finance Audley Shaw; Deputy Prime Minister and former JLP Chairman, Dr Kenneth Baugh; Deputy Leader of the JLP, Dr. Christopher Tufton, and party Chairman Lester ‘Mike’ Henry.

“I am receiving encouragement (and) I am in my process of looking at everything,” said Shaw, 59, adding he would make a decision soon.

The 70-year old Dr. Baugh – the current minister of foreign affairs and foreign trade – struck aside concerns about his age, stating he feels young and has enough experience to handle the position.

He disclosed that he will decide, next week, whether he will contest the election.

On the other hand, Dr Christopher Tufton, 43, told the Jamaica Gleaner, he is not certain he will contest the race, and is holding consultations.

“I would not do anything to hurt the country or the party, so I would restrain my political ambition to ensure that we maintain the recovery and growth that we have seen in the past four years. We cannot let political expediency jeopardise the gains,” Dr. Tufton said.

The 76-year old JLP Chairman said he too, would be listening to his supporters.

Henry is the current transport and works minister.

The JLP will close nominations midnight October 20, ahead of the November 19 poll.

“We anticipate a pleasant, unifying, dynamic and, for the People’s National Party, a frightening result and I am certain that result will ensure that when I sit here next year, my government will still be in office,” General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin told a media conference Thursday

Widener University in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, said Wednesday the reception with President Abdoulaye Wade would need to be rescheduled.

“Unrest in Senegal has forced President Wade to adjust his travel plans for an earlier return home,” a university statement said.

The announcement came as a surprise in Senegal, where a small protest was wrapping up in the capital’s downtown district led by employees of a telephone company. On Friday _ the day before Wade was due to attend the university event _ a coalition of opposition groups was planning a rally to call for Wade’s departure.

The 85-year-old Wade is planning to run for a third term in next year’s election, exploiting a loophole in the constitution which allows a maximum of two terms. In June, riots broke out after Wade’s party attempted to rush a law through parliament which would have lowered the percentage of votes needed for a candidate to win a presidential election, a move critics say was designed to make it easier for the aging leader to win re-election against a divided opposition.

Paul Ndir, a spokesman for opposition leader Moustapha Niasse, said by telephone on Wednesday that Friday’s rally is intended to commemorate the three-month anniversary of the massive June protest. “But we don’t expect it to be very big _ so frankly, it seems to me that Wade is afraid,” he said. “Why else would he be cutting his visit short?”

Saurel Jacinthe, president of the Chamber of Deputies, told The Associated Press that Haitian President Michel Martelly picked Garry Conille as his third nominee for Haiti’s head of government.

The decision comes more than three months after Martelly took office. The entertainer-turned-president has struggled to install a government because parliament has rejected his first two nominees for prime minister.

Martelly’s first pick, an entrepreneur, was turned down because of questions over his citizenship and taxes. The second pick, a former justice minister, angered some lawmakers because he was accused of prosecuting supporters of former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide when he oversaw the judiciary in the middle of the last decade.

The failure to install a prime minister has put reconstruction efforts from last year’s devastating earthquake on hold.

Conille, 45, could meet opposition as he goes before parliament for approval.

Lawmakers are almost certain to raise questions over his eligibility because he has not lived in Haiti for five consecutive years, a constitutional requirement for the post. The Martelly administration will likely argue that he is exempt from the residency requirement because he has been working for the United Nations.

Conille is a seasoned development worker. With a master’s degree from the University of North Carolina and a doctorate from the State University of Haiti, he began his career with the U.N. in 1999 and served in Ethiopia and, until June, in Niger.

After last year’s earthquake, Conille worked as chief of staff for Clinton in his position as U.N. special envoy. The former U.S. leader also is co-chairman of the Interim Haiti Recovery Commission, which is in charge of coordinating earthquake reconstruction efforts.

If approved as prime minister, Conille would assume responsibilities as the other co-chairman on the reconstruction panel, which has drawn heavy criticism for making little visible progress since the January 2010 disaster.

Conille could not be immediately reached for comment Wednesday night.

Not all the missteps that President Obama has made have been entirely his fault.  But he is going to have a lot of work to do in the next four months in order to win back disaffected supporters.  When he first came to power the president promised to usher in a new era of cooperation with the Republicans.  He wanted to change the rancor which was part of the culture in Washington.  Armed with the ideals that he articulated so glowingly during his presidential run, President Obama came into office determined to put them to work.  Then reality struck!  He encountered a Republican-led Congress hell-bent on denying him any successes.  The Republicans said “no” to the president at every turn, and had their right-wing talk-show surrogates praying for the president to fail.  After sticking his hand out a number of times to the Republicans – only to have it bitten – President Obama was too reluctant to go it alone.  Every time the Republicans voiced opposition to his proposals, he was too quick to tone them down.  With this policy of appeasement, he removed the “public-option” from his healthcare plan, which cost him dearly with Democrats.

Also, much to the dismay of many voters, President Obama did not honor his campaign pledges to close the prison at Guantanamo Bay and to bring the soldiers home from Iraq and Afghanistan.  Instead, he has increased the number of troops and lengthened the timetable for the troop withdrawal.  The irony here is that the same Republicans that chastised him for wanting to bring the troops home too early, are now complaining that he’s letting them stay too long! President Obama has also continued many of the abhorrent Bush administration’s policies regarding the Patriot Act and has failed to properly regulate corporations that are damaging the environment and endangering lives, especially in the energy sector.

In politics however, no-one is ever able to deliver 100% of their campaign promises.  Proving to the public that you are trying and having some successes along the way, is usually enough to keep supporters happy.  Will Obama’s continued attempts to bend over backwards for the Republicans threaten his reelection bid?  Maybe.  While I would not take too much from the Republican gains in the 2010 mid-term elections, there are some lessons that can be learned to help the president win a second term.  Though Obama entered office on a wave of public support, independents who did not think “change” came soon enough voted Republican and many Democrats just stayed home.   This resulted in the anti-worker laws now being passed in Wisconsin by Governor Scott Walker and should serve as a national wake-up call for Obama supporters and help re-energize them for his 2012 run.

The biggest issue for the president will be the state of the economy.  The president usually takes all the credit for the good times and gets all the blame for the bad times.  President Obama inherited the recession from President Bush but will be blamed if unemployment doesn’t start going down.  If the economy starts to turn around, he definitely has the charisma to get back enough of his following.  There is definitely enough time for Obama to get reacquainted with the voters before November.  He’ll help himself more by standing up to the Republicans and getting back to some of the campaign pledges he outlined at the start of his first term.  Also, if the Republican nomination gets bloody with infighting among Tea Party and traditional GOP members, his job will be that much easier.  But even with the sputtering economy, I’d still put my money on President Obama to repeat assuming he does not mess it up by going back to his over-compromising ways.

Map of California

The 14-member California Citizens Redistricting Commission was established by voters under Proposition 11 in 2008 in response to gerrymandering by lawmakers. Voters favored switching to an independent commission to draw legislative maps after state lawmakers used the process for decades to protect their own incumbents and their parties.

Supporters hoped the new process would encourage the election of more moderate politicians and thus reduce political gridlock, but experts say it’s too soon to tell how much of an impact the new maps will have.

Republicans and Democrats will also face another voter-approved wild card _ the open primary system in which voters, regardless of registration, can select candidates from any party.

“I think a big factor in the low registration and low voting rates in California among some communities is disenchantment with the political process. And a big source of that disenchantment is the fact that people feel that politicians have chosen their voters instead of the other way around,” said Maria Blanco, a commissioner from Los Angeles. “The measure of success will be whether we see more people … willing to participate in the political process.”

The process is being closely watched because California has one of the few citizen-led panels in the nation. It also has implications for the state’s legislative and congressional districts. The commission will release the first draft of maps Friday and hand in a final version in August.

According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, most state maps have their political boundaries drown by the Legislature or commissions appointed by the parties or governors. Arizona’s model comes closest with five commissioners selected at random.

California’s commissioners were chosen from an initial field of about 30,000 applicants and reflect the state’s racial and political diversity. There are five Democrats, five Republicans and four decline-to-state or registered with another party.

The panel will draw the maps for all 120 state Senate and Assembly districts, the state’s 53 congressional districts and for the districts represented on the five-member Board of Equalization, which collects state sales taxes, vice taxes and fees, and hears appeals on tax disputes. Last November, voters rejected a ballot initiative that sought to eliminate the commission.

Paul Mitchell, president of Redistricting Partners, a consulting firm in Sacramento, said the public will like some of what it sees, but not everything.

“On the input, I would give it high marks _ the public nature of it, the hearings. You’ve got extremely smart people on the commission. They’re doing the right things,” Mitchell said.

“My belief though is it’s not going to meet the expectations of the public. Maybe the public had expectations that they voted for these sets of initiatives and the result was going to be that they were going to have all these districts be square boxes and every district was going to be competitive _ and that’s not happening.”

Mitchell said the maps may not create as many competitive districts as some might think because the commission is grouping similar communities together, which means people who share the same political values will likely be in the same district. Majority Democrats who are hoping for Republicans to become more moderate might be disappointed, he said.

“I don’t think redistricting is going to motivate them to the middle _ except in a rare case,” Mitchell said.

Tony Quinn, an expert on California political races, disagreed and said the new lines will likely shake up the makeup of the state Legislature. Previous gerrymandering of political boundaries had left the state with oddly shaped districts and little turnover between the parties.

Because the commissioners are paying no attention to incumbents or party registration, Quinn said “incumbents of both parties are going to be displaced and pushed around some.” He believes the new maps will create more competitive districts, giving Democrats a shot at taking over two-thirds of the state Legislature, a critical threshold for passing taxes without Republicans.

On Thursday, the Service Employees International Union California announced the launch of a new political action committee called Golden California Committee to try to elect more moderate Republicans. The union is hoping to get help from new boundaries.

“Our legislators are harangued by talk show hosts like John and Ken and pressured by D.C. ideologues like Grover Norquist and have forgotten who they really answer to: their constituents,” said Bob Schoonover, president of SEIU Local 721 and a Los Angeles Republican.

Quinn, co-editor of the California Target Book, which analyzes state legislative and congressional races, said while the Assembly and congressional maps look good, the Senate maps need to be cleaned up. For example, he said one Senate district runs from Lodi, a conservative agricultural community in the Central Valley, to Marin County, a liberal hotbed.

Blanco cautioned that the new map is only a draft.

The maps will try to string communities together but will need to follow the landmark Voting Rights Act of 1965 in response to the civil rights movement. The maps also will reflect a population that has migrated from the coast to the state’s interior.

“There’s no doubt you’re going to see maps that aren’t gerrymandered,” Blanco said.